Bearscast Over/Under vs. Colts

Traditionally on Bearscast we do an Over/Under segment during our preview show for every game. I try to pick out five to six statistics or topics that I feel could play key role this week’s game. I try to focus on topics that could swing the tide between a Bears’ victory or defeat and occasionally I just have a little fun. So I now present you with the Bearscast Over/Under for week 1, my picks, and my thoughts/explanation.

Rushing yards for Matt Forte: Over/Under 85?
Matt Forte is the first rookie running back to start the opening game for the Bears since Walter Payton. While that’s pretty nice company Forte will need to have a much better day for the Bears to stay competitive, Payton rushed 8 times for 0 yards. With that in mind I think Forte will break the 85 yard mark and probably go over 100 in total-yards. He’s going to be the main man on team that’s looking to run and control the clock. If he comes in under the Bears are in trouble.

Sacks by the Bears defense: Over/Under 2.5?
There is a decent chance the Colts are going to have some protection issues. They lost their LG in free agency and then Pro Bowl C Jeff Saturday went out with an injury in the preseason. The problem is we’ve seen nothing that resembles a pass rush from the Bears so far this year. Supposedly Tommie Harris is 100% but combine the lackadaisical daze the D seems to be in with Peyton Manning’s quick release and I don’t think the Bears can get to him three times.

Passing yards for Kyle Orton: Over/Under 225?
Call it optimism and combine it with the fact that I expect the Bears to be behind in the second half. Orton is not the same QB he was in 2005 and with the full playbook at his disposal he will get the chance to take deep shots and make a lot more plays. The Colts secondary is outstanding but it plays the Cover-2 that Orton is so familiar with. I expect Brandon Lloyd and Greg Olsen to have good days and lots of yards picked up on pass to RB out of the backfield.

Turnovers forced by the Bears: Over/Under 1.5?
This is the one that is going to hurt the most. The Bears are going to need turnovers and good field position to stay in the game, and Manning’s rust after missing the whole preseason should help. However, the play from Safety has been so underwhelming and the pass rush so non-existent that it’s hard to foresee more than 1 INT. Combine that with the outstanding ball security, only 5 fumbles lost last year, and opportunities will be slim for this big play driven D. And without that the outlook is grim.

Receptions for Devin Hester: Over/Under 3.5?
Speculation is that Hester will start along side Brandon Lloyd Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium. However, how many snaps he’ll play exactly is still up for debate. The Bears seemed to still be easing him into things during the preseason and despite all his talent he never really impressed. There’s also the concern that it will take away from his return ability, his #23, and the field position that supplies is too valuable to lose. I expect to see one gadget play (WR screen), one deep shot and one or two other targets, but I don’t expect that he’ll be an integral enough part of the offense to catch 4 passes.