Over/Under Week 2: Bears at Panthers

In last week’s Over/Under I picked out a bunch of things I thought the Bears would need to go over on to stay close. Well, they won the game and only went “over” on 1 of 5 (thank you Matt Forte!).

In my own defense the Bears got two sacks when I set the line at 2.5, and both sacks came at key times. They also forced only one turnover which Lance Briggs took back for a touchdown when I set the line at 1.5. So perhaps my over/under’s will be another case of close but not quite this week, but they will still be key factors if the Bears are to get off to a 2-0 start.

Bears 3rd down conversion percentage: Over/Under 50%

Over: A HUGE key for the Bears against the Colts was converting 10 of 16 3rd downs. The Bears made sure not to put themselves in 3rd and long. It opened up lots of options for picking up the first and kept the defense on the sidelines. The Bears offense isn’t explosive so if they are going to score and control the ball they need to convert on 3rd down. With how well the executed in week 1 I expect them to do it again.

Combined rushing yards for DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart: Over/Under 125

Under: These two backs combined for nearly 140 yards against a highly respected Chargers defense. The Bears D on the other hand limited Joseph Addai to just 44 yards, but that was against a suspect offensive line. I don’t expect the Bears to shut down the run like they did last week, but especially with a healthy Dustin Dvoracek these two backs should struggle to break 100.

Sacks against and negative rushes for the Bears: Over/Under 4.5

Over: Last week the Bears were able to limit their pass attempts and Orton was only sacked twice. Also, Matt Forte did a great job slipping through the smallest crevice and making sure to pick up at least some positive yardage on every carry. I just find it hard to see this line playing that well two weeks in a row. Negative plays are a part of football and the Bears are going to have to show they can overcome them.

Receptions by Bears’ WR: Over/Under 8.5

Over: With the Bears up big early and running the ball well Kyle Orton never needed to open things up. As a result the Bears’ WRs made only six catches in the entire game and no WR caught more than two. I’m still confused what exactly Marty Booker is doing on the field, but that aside the wideouts are going to need to step up. Orton and Co. need to prove they can throw it this week. I am guessing Devin Hester makes a couple of big plays and leaves Panthers’ fans longing for Steve Smith.

Receiving yards for ex-Bear Moose Muhammad: Over/Under 50

Under: The Bears facing off against Mushin Muhammad is by far the most compelling story line this Sunday. And as I wrote Wednesday, while the Bears have said publicly very little about his comments it has been reported that off the record they are not particularly pleased with him. Moose came across as a me-first sort of player his entire time in Chicago, and I am sure he feels like he proved some people wrong with 56 yards receiving in week 1. I expect the Bears D will be highly motivated to shut him down and shut him up. If they can slow down Marvin Harrison, Moose shouldn’t be a challenge.