Bearscast Over/Under week 16: Bears vs. Packers

For the first time since the Bears have been in their “win out or no playoffs” scenario they finally got some help from other teams. Losses by Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings mean both the division and a wild card spot will still be in play Monday night.

But no matter how much will or will not be on the line when the Bears and Packers will take a frozen Solider Field it should be a hard fought football game. Five weeks ago Aaron Rodgers and Co. destroyed and embarrassed the Bears 37-3 forcing a 3-way tie for first place in the NFC North at 5-5. Now with their own playoff chances gone the Packers could have the opportunity to keep the Bears at home with them in January.

So as we try to do every week over at Bearscast.com we set five over/under’s that will be key this Monday night:

Over/Under: Kyle Orton passing yards 200

The last Bears/Packers game was Orton’s first back from the ankle injury he sustained in week 9 against the Lions and it showed. Without any mobility or the ability to push off and put sufficient velocity on his passes Kyle finished 13 of 26 for only 133 yards. In fact Orton has only one 200 yard passing game since the injury.

But the Orton’s ankle is a lot healthier and the Packers’ secondary is a lot more beat up than they were five weeks ago. Also the Packers defense will be focused on stopping the injured Matt Forte. That should mean even under less than ideal weather conditions the Bears passing game should be a lot more effective and important.

Over/Under: Ryan Grant rushing yards 100

Ryan Grant has come back to earth a bit during his second season with the Packers, but that didn’t seem to matter in the first match-up. Grant had only one 100 yard rushing game prior to week 11 against the Bears but gashed what had been the most consistent part of the Bears defense for 145 yards on just 25 carries. That effort was part of over 200 team rushing yards, the most the defense has given up all year.

The major reason for Grant’s big time performance was the focus the defense put on Aaron Rodgers and stopping the Packers top 10 passing offense. While it’s safe to expect that the Bears will be slightly less stubborn about bringing Mike Brown down into the box to stop the run, slowing down the aerial attack will still be the top priority. That should open enough holes for another solid game from Grant.

Over/Under: Devin Hester receiving yards 65

The press coverage of the Packers corners complete took the wide receivers out of the game up in Green Bay. Hester was just another victim being held to only 1 catch for 7 yards, his quietest performance since the first two weeks of the season.

Since then though Hester has established himself as the undisputed #1 wide receiver for this team. Averaging 62.5 yards per game over the last three as well as drawing two key pass interference penalties Hester has become a complete threat on offense. The Packers will undoubtedly try to jam him often, but if Hester can get off the press it will open up big play opportunities.

Over/Under: Brian Urlacher tackles 8.5

Earlier in the season Urlacher’s struggles made him the poster child for the decline of the Bears defense. For a former defensive player of the year fresh of a contract extension is never seemed to show up on Sundays. Averaging less than six tackles a game, without any sacks, and only two turnovers forced through 12 weeks it’s not shocking that he missed the Pro Bowl for the second straight year.

However, over the last two weeks announcers have been calling his name a lot more. The result has been 18 tackles, two strong defensive performances and two crucial wins. Now with the playoffs still a possibility and a long hated rival coming to Chicago in prime time Urlacher will need to continue his strong play that could help many fans forget his slow start.

Over/Under: 3rd down conversion rate 45%

Early in the season the Bears got by with an efficient offense that made sure to get into third and manageable situations and had a very high conversion rate. As teams have started to key on Matt Forte though the number of 3rd and longs has increased and the Bears season conversion rate is down to 40%. While that is not awful without the dominating defense of the past the offense needs to do a better job of pulling their weight.

It starts with a more consistent running game getting the Bears to 3rd and 5 or less. The Bears also need improved play for the WR position to give Orton more options as well as holding on to the ball. With the season on the line and perhaps his job for next season in doubt expect Kyle Orton and Co. to rise to the occasion, you have to as a Bears fan.