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Training camp is obviously a very fluid situation, especially coming off an abbreviated offseason with expanded rosters and before the first preseason game. But speculation is an awful lot of fun, so I wanted to take a look at the projected 53-man roster based on where we stand right now.

Some of this will be anticipation of how well certain players are going to perform in the coming weeks, but for the most part I don’t feel like there are a lot of roster spots to be won at this point and most of the shuffling will happen within the depth chart.

So without further ado here is my Bears projected 53-man roster as of August 8, 2011:

OFFENSE

QB: Jay Cutler, Caleb Hanie, Nathan Enderle
RB: Matt Forte, Marion Barber, Khalih Bell
FB: Harvey Unga
TE: Desmond Clark, Matt Spaeth, Kellen Davis
WR: Roy Williams, Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, Devin Hester, Sam Hurd, Dave Sanzenbacher
G/C: Roberto Garza, Lance Louis, Chris Spencer, Chris Williams, Edwin Williams
OT: J’Marcus Webb, Gabe Carimi, Frank Omiyale

Sub-Total: 24

DEFENSE

DT: Anthony Adams, Stephen Paea, Matt Toeaina, Henry Melton, Amobi Okoye
DE: Julius Peppers, Israel Idonije, Corey Wootton, Vernon Gholston
LB: Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Nick Roach, Brian Iwuh, J.T. Thomas, FA TBD
CB: Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, Zack Bowman, D.J. Moore, Joshua Moore, Corey Graham
S: Chris Harris, Major Wright, Craig Steltz, Chris Conte

Sub-Total: 25

SPECIAL TEAMS

PK: Robbie Gould
P: Adam Podlesh
LS: Patrick Mannely

Sub-Total: 3

TOTAL: 52

Ok, so I could only come up with 52 guys who are going to make the roster. The easiest thing would be to simply slide Chester Taylor in on the offensive side of things but I really think he’s gone. The Bears gave up a 7th round pick for Unga and I think they slip him onto the roster as a “fullback” even though this offense really doesn’t have one. It’ll give them an additional specials teams player and he should provide some bulk in the backfield in certain situations.

On defense I already have one “Free Agent To Be Determined” at LB. There Bears are without a 6th true linebacker at the moment but they certainly won’t go into the season that way. Another place you could tag with a ‘FA TBD’ is probably safety. Steltz and Conte are both likely to be fine special teams players but the Bears defensive backfield is in a lot of trouble if either one see’s significant playing time.

Caleb Hanie is an unrestricted free agent this year and I am sure the Bears are going to try to resign him, but the question is what will he cost and will the Bears pay up? He has proven himself to be a very capable backup and with the looming 18 game schedule teams are goign to put even more emphasis on their backup QB’s. I am sure some teams will look at Hanie as a potential guy they would even want to compete for a starting job and their should be some solid bidding for his services. So how much is he going to go for and will the Bears do what ti takes to keep him? Recent year have shown that young guys who show a spark tend to be very well compensated on the open market, probably over compensated. Toud Bouman, Scott Mitchell, Jake Delhomme, Matt Cassell Matt Schaub etc. I would not be surprised to see a team make Hanie an offer in the 3 year 10-15 Million range. I like Hanie alot, and I will also say this – I am fine with paying 5 million a year for a good backup in today’s NFL. I do think that price tag is a lot for Hanie though and we would be better off with a veteran free agent that we can get in that price range. So Bears fans I am afraid to say I think we have seen the last of Hanie in a Bears uniform. I think Angelo will pay for proven talent, but does not like to pay for promise and he will let Hanie go the way of Bernard Berrian. We missed Berrian when he left, but he clearly was not worth the money we would have needed to resign him.

Bears fans tell me what you think. What kind of contract is Hanie going to get? Should we pay that kind of money to resign him or find someone else?

Caleb Hanie seduced me the way every back-up quarterback should: with big throws and gritty play against other scrubs in the waning moments of a preseason game. Oh Caleb you had me at that Hail Mary pass to beat the 49ers.

With Jay Cutler officially sidelined with concussion symptoms the Bears are probably counting their blessings that they are matched up with the 0-4 Carolina Panthers and their rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen this week. It’s safe to say – even with all the flaws exposed against the Giants – the Bears will only need a mere semblance of offense to win.

Enter the only Bears quarterback to make a play down the field last week, right?

Wrong. The Bears apparently feel better about turning to veteran Todd Collins despite his listless performance in relief of Cutler Sunday night. A lot has been made of the fact that Collins won his last 3 games as a starter. Not enough has been made of the fact that those games came in 2007 when Collins finished out a season for the Redskins.

Mike Martz has always preferred the heady veteran who will simply run his system and highlight the genius of how such a system could make a non-talent like Jon Kitna a 4,000 yard passer. So what better way to honor the system than to turn Todd Collins into a fill-in winner.

But before Hanie’s preseason shoulder injury the Bears’ coaching staff seemed content with him manning the #2 job. If Collins was such a better options why not bring him in from the get-go instead of needing to be pressed into it?

Also – given the deteriorating state of the offensive line – why not turn to the younger, more mobile and athletic quarterback? The one who might be able to evade the rush, get outside the pocket and make a play? Sure he may be less experience and might not go through his reads and progressions perfectly, and in Martz’s world that is the cardinal sin that can not be allowed.

And so the Bears will trot Collins out under center Sunday in Carolina. To make people say, ‘Wow! Look at that play! Even Todd Collins can make it as a quarterback under Martz’ instead of ‘Wow! Look at that play! Hanie sure made something out of nothing there’. That is the stubbornness and arrogance of Mike Martz. The same stubbornness that had the Bears continually dropping back to pass until the Giants knocked Cutler out of the game. The same arrogance that believe Collins is the better choice to lead the Bears on Sunday just because he’s been around longer.

Consider this the call for Caleb Hanie. Forget about the importance of experience and start thinking about the impact of creativity and athleticism when it comes to moving the Chicago Bears malfunctioning offense down the field.

At 7pm central time Sunday a Bears fan could’ve said ‘our offensive line is going to get Jay Cutler killed’ and chuckled. Three hours later that seemed like far too disturbing a reality to joke about.

What a difference a loss makes.

Now the Bears must deal with a concussed quarterback and an offensive line that has been exposed as a fraud. Being 3-1 is nice, but that same start wasn’t able to get the 2009 Bears in the playoffs.

So what is going to be different this year?

Matt Bowen of National Football Post has already identified most of the Bears blocking issues as technique based. But how comforting is that when one of the big off-season additions was supposed to be Mike Tice?

Is he this years Rod Marinelli?

The offensive line has to be able to block in some capacity in order for the offense to succeed. And athough they are far from the only culprits for Sunday night’s disaster, the linemen are the easiest to criticize.

From the moment Cutler under threw Devin Hester — and missed a sure touchdown — he looked determined to make up for that play. Instead of taking the open underneath pass the Giants offered with their zone coverage Cutler patted the ball and waited for something bigger to develop.

So while a Bears defense that was questioned coming into the preseason demanded respect in a second straight national TV appearance, the offense crumbled under the pressure. Two weeks removed from brilliantly adjusting to the Dallas pressure and the loss of Chris Williams, the Giants stunts and an injury to Lance Louis proved to be too much.

That is the Bears biggest flaw. Despite ample talent and experience in almost all other areas the very foundation of the team is cracked and crumbling. Years of neglect by Jerry Angelo have created an amalgamation of inexperienced low draft picks and aging veterans along the offensive line.

Even with an unexpectedly strong performance by the defense and receivers, the running game and Cutler can’t preform at the level they need to without a little help. Will that help come? The Bears weak schedule over the next few weeks may not help us reach a conclusion but starting with the Minnesota Vikings after the bye week fans will find out just how well this team can adjust.

Through 3 weeks of the NFL season the Bears are the lone undefeated team in the NFC. Cutler is a top 5 rated quarterback, Urlacher has returned to Pro Bowl form, Devin Hester is getting all ridiculous again, and Julius Peppers is earning his $91.5 million price tag.

Yet it’s hard to fight the temptation to rain on this parade. After all, the offensive line is in shambles – unable to protect Cutler or create any holes in the running game. The defensive secondary has seen its top corner benched and has given up passing yards galore. And as good as Peppers has been on the defensive line everyone else has been equally as bad, especially the inactive Tommie Harris.

So who are these guys?

Are they undefeated contenders who will make their doubters eat crow all season?

Or are they a flawed team who could just as easily be 1-2?

The Bears have too much talent to end up with the dregs of the league. While the mediocre finishes the last 3 years has raised doubts in minds of Bears fans players like: Urlacher, Cutler, Briggs, Peppers, Hester, Tillman, and Knox are all legit NFL difference makers.

By the same token this team is invariably flawed. The big athletic offensive line that Jerry Angelo and Mike Tice have constructed doesn’t seem to be able to push anyone off the ball. That’s why the Bears running game is stuck in neutral, and that 4th and goal pass to Desmond Clark against the Packers will not be the last time you see the Bears throwing with 3rd or 4th and less than 3 yards to go. On the defensive side of the ball no one but Peppers can get pressure.

So how does this flawed and talented team win? By executing the Lovie Smith Equation.

What is the Lovie Smith Equation? Our big plays – our mistakes > your big plays – your mistakes

Since Lovie has taken over as head coach that is how the Bears have approached winning football games. Under the direction of Mike Martz the offense is attacking downfield and making enough big plays to overcome their mistakes. On defense Rod Marinelli has refrained from blitzing and the Bears gap control has shut down the oppositions running game, forcing them to rely on the short passing game effectively eliminating big plays.

The offense is going to be a roller coaster, with Cutler running for his life and no running game to speak of, but they are going to make plays. They won’t be a dominant offense unless Tice can suddenly turn Frank Omiyale and Lance Louis into Pro Bowlers, but as long as Jay doesn’t go interception crazy they will be good.
On defense it won’t be nearly as exciting and all about execution. The Bears pass rush is not good enough to get there with four and therefore shut down opposing passing games given their preferred zone coverage. That means they will need to continue to be disciplined with their gap assignments, crush opposing ground games, and make teams one dimensional.

Bottom line is that if Cutler is making poor decisions or a team can run on the Bears they are going to be in trouble. If both happen you can forget about it unless Devin Hester has found a time machine back to 2007. However, as long as they are making big plays on offense and avoiding them on defense the Bears are going to be better than expected.

Does that make them a bit of a tease? Probably, in the sense that the Bears are not the best team in the NFC as their record currently indicates. But seeing as they have already beaten two preseason Super Bowl contenders it’s safe to say this team can kill a few Giants too.

The Bears performance Sunday night in Denver is about the most encouraging preseason this side of the Saints marching up and down the field on the Oakland Raiders.

Between Jay Cutler leading the offense on a 98 yard touchdown drive, Devin Hester recapturing the magic with a 54 yard punt return, and the first team defense limiting the Broncos offense to 3 points in the first half all three phases were at the top of their game.

Now the Bears can simply coast through their final preseason match-up and head into Green Bay feeling like they can handle a 3-4 defense and a hostile crowd.

However, between now and then “the Bears” will consist of 22 fewer players as Lovie Smith and Co. make the finals cuts down to 53.

The personnel moves started yesterday when the Bears signed Rod Hood, formerly of the Arizona Cardinals and recently released by the Cleveland Browns. To make room for Hood they sent seventh round pick Derek Kinder packing and it’s probably not a good sign Trumaine McBride who struggled mightily Sunday night.

So who are the guys squarely on the chopping block?

Hunter Hillenmeyer: A steady performer for six years in Chicago, Hunter regularly made up for his athletic deficiencies by being the most disciplined player on the team and always knowing an executing his assignment. But after injuries robbed him of his starting job last year the coaching staff looks comfortable with going in another direction.

As a backup – unless the Bears decide to keep seven linebackers – Hillenmeyer’s limitation as a special teams contributor make him expendable. While injuries to Jamar Williams and Nich Roach give him an outside chance of sticking around the writing was on the wall when the Bears chose to resign Darrell McClover.

Adrian Peterson: He runs hard, he’s a steady special teams contributor, and his story as a division II running back who’s overcome a sever stutter is a great one. The problem is the serious number crunch on the offensive side and Garrett Wolfe’s surprising emersion on coverage units. He can still contribute in a number of ways but is so unlikely to see the field at this point.

If the coaches decide against going with four tight ends or feel too strongly that they can’t lose his veteran presence maybe Peterson makes it back for another season. At this point it’s not that he can’t play but that he simply doesn’t have a role on the team.

Trumaine McBride: It’s been a while since one poor preseason game cost someone their roster spot like McBride’s play did Sunday in Denver. During his two years with the Bears McBride has always been undersized but now he is also underperforming. The injuries to Tillman and Bowman provided him with more than enough opportunity, but Thursday night will almost certainly be his last in Chicago.

Brett Basanez: Last year the Lovie Smith wanted to carry just two quarterbacks in the regular season but Caleb Hanie’s play during the preseason made it impossible for him to do that. To say the least the ex-Wildcat Basanez has not made a similar impression starting with his three interception debut in Buffalo. Barring the unexpected Baz will be back on the open market Saturday.

Michael Gaines: His fate may be fully intertwined with that of Adrian Peterson. Peterson has the track record and history with the team, but Gaines ability to backup at fullback and the number of two tight end sets the Bears run gives him a lot more utility.

Whether Gaines get cut or not will probably also say a lot about Kellen Davis’ progress as a blocker and if coaches feel they need to have someone else in there on goal line and short yardage sets.

Josh Bullocks: Both Bullocks and Craig Steltz have been buried on the depth chart since training camp opened. Bullocks brings more to the table athletically but the Bears touted Steltz as the presumed starter at free safety all offseason. Either will fill the role of fourth safety and be a mainstay on special teams so this is where draft status will probably give Steltz the edge.

Brandon Rideau/Devin Aromashodu: I list them together because the Bears are only keeping six wide receivers at most and – assuming they won’t give up on Rashied Davis’ special teams contributions – one of these two have to go. Rideau has to be caught off guard by this position after entering camp as the #3 and earning rave reviews early, but we haven’t heard much about him lately and have seen even less production on the field.

Aromashodu appears to have the advantage of franchise quarterback Jay Cutler in his corner and the most impressive catch of the preseason against the Giants. Additionally, if Cutler leads him inside a little more he probably pulls in a touchdown grab against the Broncos. Neither guy is going to make an impact outside the offense and that means only one can stick around.

Along with those veterans there are also an unusual number of draft picks who will be sweating out the final cuts. Here are a few guys whose future with the Bears may be on the practice squad:

D.J. Moore: After the draft Angelo really talked like he’d gotten a steal who could provide immediate depth at cornerback. While the steal part still might be true there is going to be nothing immediate about Moore’s impact on the Bears.

After recording one pass break up against the Bills, Moore has been virtually invisible and has lost playing time to less known players Woodny Turenne and Rudy Burgess. Moore is trying to overcome the same size issues as Trumaine McBride and so far has been unable to do so.

Marcus Freeman: If the Bears are seriously considering letting a player of Hunter Hillenmeyer go –and it’s a safe bet they are – then someone like Freeman really doesn’t have much of a chance. Despite his interception Sunday in Denver and his blog over at chicagobears.com Freeman’s impact has been limited.

Freeman has gone from a projected second round pick two years ago to a practice squad candidate. With Jamar Williams potentially a free agent after this year – pending a new collective bargaining agreement – the coaching staff can hope a year with the organization can have Freeman ready to step in and step up next summer.

Henry Melton: As a converted running back out of Texas everyone knew that Melton was going to be a project. Unfortunately given the number crunch along the defensive line the Bears really can’t afford to carry a project on the 53-man roster. Thankfully it’s unlikely anyone else can either and Melton should make it through the waivers process.

With a year of tutelage from Rod Marinelli while on the practice squad Melton could be someone to watch. With the impending free agency of Adewale Ogunleye and Mark Anderson, Melton could be provided with a unique opportunity to make a serious impact next season

It would probably be considered putting it lightly to say that was not what Bears fans expected from the first appearance of their new franchise quarterback. In fact, if not for Kyle Orton’s own disastrous – three interception – debut with the Broncos there might have been a few twinges of regret.

But for all the disappointment surrounding the overall up and down nature of Jay Cutler’s first 14 snaps as the Chicago Bears quarterback, two days later all the attention is focused on one particular snap, one particular throw, and one particular comment after the game.

Watching Jay Cutler step up in the pocket and heave an ill-fated pass down the left sideline that landed in the hands of Buffalo corner Leodis McKelvin instead of Devin Hester probably made more than a few fans flashback to their Rex Grossman nightmares.

Then hearing Cutler after the game classify Devin Hester as more of a “go-get-it guy” and not a “back shoulder, or jump up and get it” guy gave me a flashback to Rex Grossman standing on Soldier Field after being dismantled by the Green Bay Packers on New Year’s Eve and admitting he wasn’t prepared for the game.

A word to the wise Jay: wing and a prayer, 50-50 deep passes and a little too much candor and honesty in your post-game interviews are probably not the path to success as a Bears quarterback.

Trust me on this.

In the end though, more might never have been made over a single preseason interception.

A strong-armed, aggressive quarterback tried to make a big play in a game that essentially means nothing and yet the world seems to be coming to an end. In this quarterback starved town that is the inevitable burden of being labeled “the franchise”.

Was the pass a poor decision? Yes. But considering how little preseason generally equates to regular season success fans should probably take a deep breath and relax. It was a small step in a long process and should only cause worry when it becomes a pattern instead of an anomaly.

Even worse has been the reaction to Cutler’s comments after the game. Ever searching for scandal and the signs of discontent a simple observation was turned into throwing a teammate under the bus.

What was so untrue about Cutler’s comments? I don’t foresee the 5’11” Hester leaping high over cornerbacks to pull in spectacular downfield grabs, do you? Hester is a guy who’s going to get behind defenders and beat them on quickness and what I read from Cutler was simply that observation.

Members of the media and fans are often hypocrites when it comes to their cries for players to answer questions with and display candor, honesty and personality. This is exactly why they don’t.

When a simple answer to a question gets blown this out of proportion it’s a wonder why every Bears player doesn’t adhere to the Lovie Smith guide to dealing with the press.

For so many reasons Jay Cutler’s first go-around as starting quarterback for the Chicago Bears was a learning experience. Perhaps just most surprising is that the person he probably needs to learn the most from is Rex Grossman and not repeating his mistakes.

For all intents and purposes the Bears roster is set. While fans and even players might dream of the addition of Plaxico Burress or another veteran wide receiver, GM Jerry Angelo doesn’t seem to share that vision and seem content to go with this roster.

So during this lull, where few changes are likely to be made, it’s a good time for reflection and self-evaluation. Breaking down this roster and trying to determine what the biggest questions facing this team still are.

Over the next few weeks I am going to ask some of those questions and do the best I can to answer them. Most of them are obvious, but there are a few that might surprise you. The first question revolves around the man thought to be the great answer: Jay Cutler.

Will Cutler’s interceptions keep him from significantly improving the Bears’ offense?

It seems blasphemous to suggest that the great savior has a flaw, after all considering what’s been trotted out under center for the Bears most of the last 20 years Cutler really might seem perfect.

But lost in all the character assassination of Cutler – with NFL experts and journalists calling him a party boy, prima donna, and questioning his leadership – has been a stunning lack of analysis of other parts of Cutler’s game.

Everyone knows about the 4,000 yard season, the 25 touchdown passes, and the Pro Bowl appearance. Everyone talks about the big arm and surprising mobility. But far too many have neglected to mention the 32 interceptions over the last two seasons, or that he posted a QB rating under 80 in half of his starts last year.

Most of Cutler’s struggles, such has his career 17-20 record, have been explained away as the result of Denver’s terrible defense the last few years. Supports say he’s 13-1 when he’s team holds their opponents under 21 points.

That all may be true but he’s also 2-6 over the last two seasons when throwing more than one interception in a game. Cutler also has only nine interception free games over his last 32 starts and only three of those came in 2008.

KC Joyner – the football scientist – has even gone as far as to suggest Cutler will remind fans of Rex Grossman. While that may seem insulting Joyner has also been quick to remind people that Rex also quarterbacked the Bears to a Super Bowl.

Now KC isn’t suggesting that Cutler is suddenly going to be fumbling snaps, throwing off his back foot and taking terrible sacks, but Jay’s arm strength – like Rex’s – is both a blessing and a curse. It allows him to make big plays and fit balls in tight spots, and it also encourages him to throw passes he shouldn’t.

That was something the Bears could overcome in 2006 as offensive mistakes were quickly erased by a dominant defense. However, over the last two seasons the Bears have stayed afloat by not making mistakes and forcing other teams to drive the length of the field.

Without a dominant 2005 or 2006 style defense it does seem reasonable to raise the question of whether or not the Bears will be able to overcome Cutler giving opponents a short field. Because for all those deep balls fans are envisioning landing in the arms of Devin Hester, there are going to be a few that also end up in the hands of defenders.

Cutler is still a young quarterback and maturity and a stronger supporting cast could lead to less risk taking and fewer turnovers. Matt Forte will provide a strong running game and Ron Turner will ensure he won’t be asked to carry the entire offense as he was in Denver, but all that is not going to curb Cutler’s affinity for the big play.

Given his current status as savoir Cutler will get a much longer leash than Rex ever did. His lows won’t be as low and his highs will be just as high, if not higher. But while a slow start would be explained away by new teammates and a new system, it might be a different story if three interceptions cost the Bears a game in November.

In the end Cutler’s ability to make the offense significantly better will likely have more to do with how few passes he throws to the other team instead of how many he throws to his own.

Define irony: a guy you fired three years ago because you thought you could do a better job without him coming back to take your job because you couldn’t do it without him.

Maybe not poetic enough for Alanis Morissette but it could be a reality for Lovie Smith.

Lost in the high and residual buzz of the Jay Cutler acquisition was the January decision of Smith to take over the defensive play-calling. That decision officially started the clock on Lovie’s head coaching tenure in Chicago.

What Lovie announced with that move was “I [Lovie] the defensive guru can fix this with coaching rather than changing players.” This season is now a referendum on Smith’s coaching ability.

What happens if the defense doesn’t turn it around? What happens if the Bears don’t make the playoffs?

It might seem crazy to suggest that the Bears wouldn’t make the playoffs in ’09. After all they were 9-7 last year and upgraded the two most important positions on offense with Cutler at QB and Orlando Pace at LT, they have to get better.

But that 9-7 easily could’ve been 7-9 or 6-10 given how poorly they played over certain stretches. And both the Packers and Vikings are primed for playoff runs themselves, rarely do three teams from the same division make it.

So put yourself in Jerry Angelo’s shoes. You’ve just put the team right back into full fledged win-now mode with the bold trade for Jay Cutler, you’ve got 4 years remaining on your own contract and are dealing with a defensive coach who can’t get the defense together and hasn’t made the playoffs in three years.

Would you stand pat under those circumstances? I am not sure Angelo would.

So if you let Lovie go, with two years left on the contract he signed after the Super Bowl season, you know the McCaskey’s aren’t shelling out big bucks for a Mike Shanahan or Bill Cowher. That limits the options.

And on the West Coast there is an ex-Bear player and coach who could be leading the Chargers defense on a Super Bowl run. A former linebacker, who looked to be a head coach candidate just a few years ago, was forced to step back to linebackers coach, and is now on the rise again. A coach, who knows our personnel and has the utmost respect of the established veterans on this team.

Ron Rivera sure would sound like a good option for this team, and as a first time head coach he would come cheap.

Maybe Lovie leads the defense to a bounces back season.

Maybe the Bears — with Cutler at the helm — make a deep playoff run.

Maybe none of this comes to fruition.

But don’t fool yourself, the clock is running on Lovie’s time leading the Monsters of the Midway. If he can’t get it done the logical replacement would be the guy he fired 2 years ago. Isn’t that ironic.