Posts tagged ‘atlanta falcons’

The next two weeks are the turning point of the Bears season. They already salvaged a potentially positive season with a goal line stand against the Eagles. Then they started to forge their identity by dominating the Lions in Detroit.

But now the journey really begins. The road leads to the playoffs and playing off 2007 as a fluke. At 3-2 and with a string of winnable games ahead the Bears get the chance to establish themselves as a forced to be reckoned with in the NFC (again).

Their defense can be dominant and opportunistic. Their offense can be efficient and dare I say explosive. And by putting it all together the Bears can rescue themselves from the fate of other fading teams like the Seattle Seahawks.

And so with over/under we look at the keys, the storylines, and the match-ups of week 6.

Over/Under 100 rushing yards for Michael Turner
So far this seems to be the magic number for the Falcons. In their 3 wins this season Turner has averaged nearly 150 yards and 2 TDs, but in the 2 losses he’s been held to 50 yards per game and no TDs.

Mutually the 4th ranked Bears run D and Turner present the biggest challenge either has faced all year. But a motivated Tommie Harris and Co. can dominate along the line and allow Urlacher, Briggs, and Kevin Payne to slow “the Burner” down.

Turner and Jerius Norwood will likely combine to go over 100 on the day, but keeping Turner himself under the century mark should key a Bears victory.

Over/Under 4.0 yards per rushing attempt for Bears
The Bears have struggled running the ball the last few weeks but when finally looking at the numbers it more than a little startling. Things had gotten so bad that last week against the worse run defense in the NFL the Bears actually passed nearly 50% of the time on first down.

Personally you can’t complain about the balance or the effectiveness, but it is seriously disturbing to see Forte not even capable of cracking 3 yards per carry. It’s also disconcerting that Forte hasn’t broken off a run of longer then 20 yards since his week 1 gallop against the Colts.

Orton’s performance last week should finally loosen defenses up, but can this line consistently open the holes? While the running game should get back on track, 4 yrds/att is too lofty a goal.

Over/Under 270 yards passing for Kyle Orton
It’s absolutely amazing to think that Orton has averaged nearly 270 yards a game for the last 3 weeks. A big part of that is simply taking what the defense gives him, but coming into the season how sure were you that he could even do that?

He should have a decent chance against a secondary that is 3 parts young (S Eric Coleman, CB Brent Grimes, CB Chris Houston) and 1 part old (Lawyer Milloy). But the pass rush and the need to keep the ball away from the Falcons and their bruising running style might limit his attempts.

It’ll all depend on how they try to defend him. Will the Falcons blitz and try to force turnovers giving Orton the chance to make big plays? Doubtful and that’s why he comes in under 270 yards, but still has a good game

Over/Under 100 return yards for Devin Hester
It’s always quietest before the storm. Atlanta Falcons you have been officially warned. Devin Hester’s relatively meek start to the 2008 season should not embolden you to feel confident or cocky (but as Bears fans we sure hope it does).

A lot has been written about the fact that Hester hasn’t run one back at and at times has looked indecisive and tentative. But given that he missed most of the Carolina game and all of the Tampa game the drought is over stated. Others like ESPN’s Kevin Seifert do not though and even questioned whether or not teams should still fear Hester.

For anyone who wonders about that you should speak with: Brad Childress, Mike Shanahan and Tony Dungy. Ask them how kicking to Hester worked out. In the Georgia Dome this could be Hester’s break out game, and if not watching what Reggie Bush did to the Minnesota Vikings makes me salivate for next week.

Over/Under 1.5 sacks for John Abraham
There is no more important 1 on 1 match-up in this game than Falcons DE John Abraham vs. Bears LT John St. Clair. Abraham is the NFL leader in sacks with 7 and St. Clair is a journeyman tackle who’s been filling in admirably for injured rookie Chris Williams.

If anyone can disrupt the role that Kyle Orton and the Bears passing game has been on recently it’s Abraham. He has an ideal variety of speed and strength moves that can overmatch an athletically limited St. Clair.

The odds are that Abraham is going to Orton or flush him to his teammates, probably more than once. The key will to make sure that those sacks and hits don’t turn into turnover. Kyle Orton, watch your back.