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Traditionally on Bearscast we do an Over/Under segment during our preview show for every game. I try to pick out five to six statistics or topics that I feel could play key role this week’s game. I try to focus on topics that could swing the tide between a Bears’ victory or defeat and occasionally I just have a little fun. So I now present you with the Bearscast Over/Under for week 1, my picks, and my thoughts/explanation.

Rushing yards for Matt Forte: Over/Under 85?
Matt Forte is the first rookie running back to start the opening game for the Bears since Walter Payton. While that’s pretty nice company Forte will need to have a much better day for the Bears to stay competitive, Payton rushed 8 times for 0 yards. With that in mind I think Forte will break the 85 yard mark and probably go over 100 in total-yards. He’s going to be the main man on team that’s looking to run and control the clock. If he comes in under the Bears are in trouble.

Sacks by the Bears defense: Over/Under 2.5?
There is a decent chance the Colts are going to have some protection issues. They lost their LG in free agency and then Pro Bowl C Jeff Saturday went out with an injury in the preseason. The problem is we’ve seen nothing that resembles a pass rush from the Bears so far this year. Supposedly Tommie Harris is 100% but combine the lackadaisical daze the D seems to be in with Peyton Manning’s quick release and I don’t think the Bears can get to him three times.

Passing yards for Kyle Orton: Over/Under 225?
Call it optimism and combine it with the fact that I expect the Bears to be behind in the second half. Orton is not the same QB he was in 2005 and with the full playbook at his disposal he will get the chance to take deep shots and make a lot more plays. The Colts secondary is outstanding but it plays the Cover-2 that Orton is so familiar with. I expect Brandon Lloyd and Greg Olsen to have good days and lots of yards picked up on pass to RB out of the backfield.

Turnovers forced by the Bears: Over/Under 1.5?
This is the one that is going to hurt the most. The Bears are going to need turnovers and good field position to stay in the game, and Manning’s rust after missing the whole preseason should help. However, the play from Safety has been so underwhelming and the pass rush so non-existent that it’s hard to foresee more than 1 INT. Combine that with the outstanding ball security, only 5 fumbles lost last year, and opportunities will be slim for this big play driven D. And without that the outlook is grim.

Receptions for Devin Hester: Over/Under 3.5?
Speculation is that Hester will start along side Brandon Lloyd Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium. However, how many snaps he’ll play exactly is still up for debate. The Bears seemed to still be easing him into things during the preseason and despite all his talent he never really impressed. There’s also the concern that it will take away from his return ability, his #23, and the field position that supplies is too valuable to lose. I expect to see one gadget play (WR screen), one deep shot and one or two other targets, but I don’t expect that he’ll be an integral enough part of the offense to catch 4 passes.

While a lot of key decisions were made as the Bears cut down to 53 players over the weekend, the biggest one in fans’ eyes was the decision to keep Caleb Hanie on the active roster. Hanie’s preseason play made it hard for the Bears to cut him. The Bears had planned to carry two quarterbacks because of uncertainty at so many positions, but given the attention he would’ve drawn from other teams, and the riot that would’ve ensued had they Bears lost him, they found a way to make the numbers work.

Other interesting roster moves include the cutting of several recent draft picks. Most notably where Dan Bazuin and Michael Okwo, both were high picks (2nd and 3rd round respectively) but became expendable when they guys they were tagged to replace (Alex Brown and Lance Briggs) signed extensions with the team. Given the current woes on the offensive line one has to ask if the picks might have been better use there.

Speaking of the offense, outside of Hanie’s inclusion on the roster there weren’t many surprises. The Bears insisted on keeping Garrett Wolfe, despite the fact that he’ll impact on at most a dozen plays this year. The most startling roster decision was to cut both Anthony Oakley and Tyler Reed who I thought were competing for a back-up guard spot. But that position was secured when the Bears acquired Dan Buenning from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers yesterday for a sixth round pick.

There was one additional unexpected roster move made this weekend that is beginning to make a lot more sense. Instead of keeping defensive ends Ervin Baldwin or Dan Bazuin, both were cut in favor of defensive tackle Matt Toeaina. Considering the performance of rookie Marcus Harrison and Israel Idonije’s off-season bulk up to take more time at DT the move was more than a little curious.

Now the reasoning for that move may be coming clear as it has been reported that Tommie Harris has not practiced since the third preseason game and he may be doubtful for Sunday’s opener. Harris has a growing history of injury issues and this rumored knee issue is especially concerning because it may be a continuation of an injury he played through last year.

Harris is the most integral member of this defense. His penetration in the middle of the offensive line draws continuous double-teams and frees up the rest of the line to make plays one on one. If this injury is going to slow him down it’ll make things harder for everyone. Not what you hope for after signing someone to a 4 year $40 million contract.

As I watched Kyle Orton stand five yards behind Olin Kruetz, survey the field, and then loft a perfect pass between three defenders to Rashied Davis for a touchdown, I saw the future. I saw three and four wide receivers. I saw Greg Olsen in the slot. I saw the Bears get their most talented players on the field. Could the Bears and Kyle Orton go all New England Patriots on the NFL? Given the talent gap it’s highly unlikely, but this is nothing if not a copycat league. At a time when there is unprecedented uncertainty for the Bears offense, why not try and change the approach? Ron Turner’s traditionally conservative grind it out/play-action approach has been traditionally void of the shotgun formation during his second stint with the Bears. But given Orton’s experience with it, he played almost exclusively from the shotgun at Purdue, and the strength of our personnel we might be better off seeing it early and often.

Now trying to equate a spread-style offense with the Bears is about as difficult fitting a square peg in a round hole, but hey Caleb Hanie could do it! Lest “we never forget the way you thrilled the nation with your T-formation”. For as long as any of us has been alive the Bears have been associated with running the football. So how and why should we buck all that tradition and start flinging the ball around like it’s the 21st century? Well mostly because it makes sense. Ask yourselves, what are the strengths of the current offensive personnel on the Bears? Orton is accurate and makes good decisions (or so we are told). Devin Hester, Brandon Lloyd and Mark Bradley can provide a consistent deep threat on the outside with their speed (note: no Marty Booker there). Rashied Davis versus a nickel corner is a mismatch in the Bears favor. Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark can expose linebackers and safeties. And all three projected running backs, Matt Forte, Kevin Jones and Adrian Peterson, can catch the ball well out of the backfield… how does that now scream for a more wide open approach?

So my basic premise is this: Hester/Bradley and Lloyd out wide, Davis in the slot, Olsen/Clark next to John St. Clair (who will likely need blocking assistance), and Forte/Jones next to Orton in the shotgun. Opposing teams would be forced to keep both safeties deep to protect from Hester or Lloyd simply running past their corners which means Davis and Olsen/Clark will be left one-on-one with a nickel-back or linebacker. Now, all that sounds a lot better than it would probably work on an every down basis, but gaining yards on first down will be key for this offense and they will need to avoid the predictability of simply lining up with two TEs and banging straight ahead. Spreading out the opposing defense and hitting Davis or Olsen for 5 yards on first down would make everything from that point on a lot easier.

But alas, that’s just my two cents. As stunned as I was to see any shotgun from Ron Turner this preseason it would be asking WAY too much for him to do something as daring as run it on first down during a real game. Not to mention my suggested formation means he can’t run his beloved play-action pass to the fullback in the flat for 2 yards. How could the Bears live without that play? So I guess I’ve finally come back down to earth, but imaging the Bears with a real passing attack was pretty nice while it lasted.

Sitting in section 207 of Soldier Field’s United Club is certainly a vantage point I’ve never seen a game before. And afterward I think I need to get my eyes checked because what I saw as the Bears lost 37-30 to the San Francisco 49ers was almost inexplicable. Touchdown passes, big plays, consistent movement from the offense. All balanced by poor tackling, constant over pursuit, and general lethargy by the defense. It felt like I was in the freaking Twilight Zone.

One thing merely confirming that feeling was Kyle “Neckbeard” Orton looking like a real bona fide NFL QB. His first TD pass to Rashied Davis (for which Davis ran an outstanding route) was the kind of thing we haven’t seen much in Chicago. Orton finished the game 10/17 for 147 yds and two TDs behind a vastly improved pass blocking performance by our offensive line. He even had a third TD pass dropped. My potential shame of having my own neckbeard is diminishing by the day (now the only problem will be how it plays with the ladies). Toss in some solid runs from Matt Forte, an impressive debut by Kevin Jones, and even a Mark Bradley sighting and I dare say we may have ourselves an offense.

Unfortunately much of that glee was stolen from me by a pathetic performance by the Bears defense. I haven’t seen them look that bad since they were Urlacher-less in 2004. They were overmatched by misdirection, constantly over pursuing and being beat to the back side, and giving up in coverage as mobile QBs created extra time and beat lazy DBs. Seriously, we were getting lit up by J.T. O’Sullivan! I am going to let this slide because it’s the preseason, but it was hard to watch.

Finally we get to the guys fighting for roster spots. Marty Booker was a no-show and I gotta figure he’s not making the team. Garrett Wolfe fumbled a kickoff and was unimpressive outside of that. Without the ability to carry four RBs his days in Chicago are probably numbered. After making a brief reappearance Sunday, Ricky Manning Jr. was once again nowhere to be seen and we can all wave good-bye to him. Michael Okwo was likely saved by Rod Wilson’s broken forearm; he should send him a card. And finally Dan Bauzin continues to look unimpressive and with the versatility of Israel Idonije (get on the I-train) is probably out of a job.

There is one final spot I’d like to highlight and that was the play of Rex Grossman and Caleb Hanie. Rex looked like a defeated man as he completed only one pass and was constantly booed. He lacked any kind of focus or bounce in his step and it’s obvious he took the decision hard. Hanie on the other hand is pretty impressive close up. He’s obviously got a long way to go but he showed mobility, arm strength, and good presence as San Fran came after him pretty hard. I was joking at the end of that game that we should all live our lives by asking: What would Caleb Hanie do? (WWCHD?) And he answered at the end of the game by throwing a 51-yd Hail Mary TD to Brandon Rideau. But after watching both Rex and Caleb play I am wondering if WWCHD? next isn’t take Rex’s roster spot…

After two pre-season games Kyle Orton has been declared the winner of the Bears QB battle royale. The Neckbeard will be the Bears starting QB tonight against San Francisco, and September 7th in Indianapolis, but if you ask me Rex Grossman never really had a chance.

Now I’m bitter about this for a number of reasons, not the least of which was a pledge to grow a neckbeard of my own if Orton won the battle. But perhaps the biggest reason is after the game in Seattle it’s pretty obvious Rex never had a shot. Granted Rex’s performance in the American Northwest wasn’t fantastic (9/15, 74yrds, 1INT), but given the constant duress he was under I think it was pretty good. Then Orton comes in for a 3 ‘n out, a 2 minute drill that results in a FG, and he’s declared the winner. Tell me THAT doesn’t smell a little fishy.

This decision was made long ago, but they had to string Rex along so he wouldn’t feel like an idiot for signing that contract (you think he couldn’t have had a better chance in some place like Atlanta or Miami?). The Bears have decided to transport us all back to 2005 and pray a dominant defense and outstanding special teams can carry us to victories. Listen, I’ve got nothing against Kyle Orton, but I’ve never seen anything from him that seems to demonstrate he can be effective. But he brings the allure of the unknown. They always say the back-up QB is the most popular man in town and now as Bears fans we get to reap those words.

I’ll have the opportunity to see Kyle Orton with the #1 group tonight from the United Club in Soldier Field. And hopefully afterward I’ll have a lot better feeling about all of this. I’m by no means saying the Bears season is already over, although the recent O-Line play may suggest otherwise, but I am saying this supposed “QB Competition” was never a fair fight.

If I had known all it took to get this kind of fame was light up the Chief’s 3rd string defense then I would’ve thrown my hat in that ring a long time ago. If you listen to people talk in this town Rex and Kyle should be cut immediately. This is Caleb Hanie’s team now and he will lead us to glory starting September 7th when he makes Peyton Manning look like yesterday’s news… yeah right.

I admit to being excited by what Hanie did against the Chiefs. In this Quarterback starved town anything that even remotely resembles competence should be noted and celebrated. That’s why we singled him out on Bearscast, but if you’ve visited message boards any time recently you know a lot of people feel a lot more strongly than Herman and I did. Fans have started chanting his name at practice and he recently signed AUTOGRAPHS FOR 30 MINUTES! Unless those people all got confused by the #12 and thought it was Eric Kramer, that’s absurd. He’s an undrafted free agent threw 16 passes to and against players who’ll likely be cut in a week. And while he shows some promise I think Mr. Haine has the right approach, “I know. The coaches said I showed some poise, showed some courage in there, but I realize I have to keep improving if I want to be around.”

Maybe in two or three years after taking time to develop on the practice squad and run with the 2nd or 3rd team offense there might be a chance. He just might be our very own Tony Romo. But in the mean time there’s no way he’s competing with Rex or Orton this year, and if he see’s the field during the regular season then 2008 has been an immeasurable disaster. In the mean time though, I’ve written a small Ode to Caleb Hanie.

Well, with one preseason game in the books we have a slightly better idea of how this season is going to look. After the 24-20 loss some questions seem to be getting answered but others loom even larger than ever before. So let’s take a moment and do a quick overview:

The QB Derby: Neither Kyle Orton (7/10, 56 yds) or Rex Grossman (4/8, 44 yds, TD) were particularly impressive in their debuts. Orton fumbled while attempting to scramble, Rex was tripped while dropping back to pass, and neither moved the offense well. It says a lot that rookie undrafted free agent Caleb Hanie was by far the most impressive QB against the Chiefs.

RB Committee: We got our first look at Matt Forte and it was solid if not spectacular. He showed solid vision, good hands, but just wasn’t given much room to run. Garrett Wolfe did everything he could in fighting for a roster spot with a 42-yd run and also scampering for a 25-yd TD reception off a screen pass from Rex. He looked like the ideal 3rd-down back. However, Kevin Jones has been cleared to practice this week and his potential as a starter, coupled with Forte’s ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, could still leave Wolfe out of a job even with the impressive showing.

Ohhhh! Line: This is where things came apart for the Bears last year and prospects aren’t looking much better. Chris Williams is now out for half the season after having surgery for a herniated disc, and the Bears are now so desperate for depth they are considering bring back turnstile Fred Miller. On a positive note John St. Clair looked serviceable and I was extremely encouraged by the effort of 2nd-yr LG Josh Beekman. But this “solid” performance was against a D-line without a single difference maker, so it’s safe to say this is still a work in progress.

The D: The first unit struggled to get off the field during KC’s first drive but followed that up with three consecutive 3 and outs. Overall they looked pretty solid and it was good to see Mike Brown back on the field. The biggest questions left for this unit is whether or not Brandon McGowan can hold down the job at SS and who’s going to start next to Tommie Harris. If healthy they should be back to being a top 5 unit, that’s if the offense could ever stay on the field.

Hands Up: By far and away the most disappointing group against the Chiefs was the Bear’s wide receivers. Rookie’s Earl Bennett and Marcus Monk both made huge drops on the final drive. No WR caught more than one pass and Devin Hester, who needs more work than anyone, barely got on the field. Brandon Lloyd caught a nice pass from Grossman and then disappeared. And there was even a drop from the ultra-reliable Marty Booker. I’d say odds are right now a TE is going to lead this team in receptions if not yards as well.

Is it just me or is the Rex Grossman v. Kyle Orton QB battle turning into your typical election where neither option really excites you, and at the end you throw your support behind the lesser of two evils? All of it is so distastefully politically correct. Right down both players’ comments and Lovie’s coin toss, like some debate moderator trying to decide which candidate gets the first question. Personally I get the feeling of Kerry v. W. Bush or maybe Dukakis v. H. Bush, just one of those uninspiring decisions where either way the people are probably getting screwed.

Both Quarterbacks are flawed. Rex is prone to just as many fumbled snaps and poor decisions as he is to the big plays that have kept Bears coaches enamored with him. Orton on the other hand, besides from having possibly the world’s worst facial hair, has never moved the Bears offense with consistency and seems to check down to a fault. Perhaps the gods will bless us the ability to put Rex’s arm and flair for the big play on to Orton’s body and the Bears can finally have their franchise QB, but given the unlikelihood of that we’ll have to make do with just one of them as is. So what do we know about both?

Orton is often lauded for his care-taker play that allowed the Defense and Special Teams to carry the Bears to victory. He won 11 games as a rookie and 2 out of 3 during trial run at the end of last year. The stats are underwhelming: 54% completion, 160yrds/gm, 3 TDs, 2 INTs. But you do need to take into account that one of those games was played in horrible windy conditions against Green Bay where the Defense and Special Teams scored and the Offense focused on running the ball and controlling the clock. That aside Orton had 1 good game, 1 bad game, and 1 average game and makes me think that he might by the “myth of consistency” that Brian Griese was supposed to be last year.

Rex on the other hand might be the most polarizing sports figure in Chicago in my lifetime. Despite leading the Bears to a Super Bowl his limited goodwill with the fans has been thrown away in strings of careless mistakes: taking bad sacks, fumbled snaps, and throwing off his back foot into double coverage. And yet to watch Rex at his best is the closest thing we’ve had to a legit QB in the last 15 years. Rex had an awful start to last year, but after replacing Griese in the middle of the Oakland Raiders game actually played 3 very solid games. In his second stint at the helm Rex threw for 897yrds, 3TDs, just 1 INT, and averaged 6.7 yards per attempt. But the Bears only went 2-2 in those games and he took a whopping 16 sacks. It’s hard to say if improved line play would help that, but we can be certain that last years 2nd incarnation of Rex was a lot better than the first.

So where does that leave us? I’m personally throwing my support behind Rex because I believe the player he was in the second half of 2007 gives this team their best chance to win. I don’t want to revert all the way back to 2005 and watch 8 and 9 men in the box completely stifle rookie Matt Forte. The Bears need a threat at QB, even if it’s an inconsistent one, because outside of Devin Hester they don’t have one anywhere else. That’s why I am voting for Rex in ’08.

And based on the amount he’s getting paid, returning better not be all Devin Hester does this year. I will personally admit to initially being staggered by the size of Devin’s new contract, reported as 4yrs/$40mil by many outlets. I felt it was important for the Bears to pay him and I was glad he reported after only two days, but that much money made it seem like Jerry Angelo had been well… had. However, like so many other NFL contracts things are never as they seem.

The reality of Hester’s extension is that he is now on a 6yr/$33mil deal with about half of that guaranteed. That seems to be a fair combination of highest paid Special Teams player (about $3mil/yr) and young developing receiver (about $2.5mil/yr). A lot has been made of the $10mil performance bonus he could receive, but that’s only coming if he turns into Larry Fitzgerald or Braylon Edwards… so it’s never coming. In the end this is another well done contract. Like with Peanut Tillman, Nathan Vasher, Alex Brown, Desmond Clark, and Tommie Harris before Angelo managed to nail down a market level contract without a significant holdout or PR battle during fairly tumultuous times in the NFL. The man simply does not get enough credit for keeping the cap situation under control and important players in town. And he deserves even more credit given that Hester is such a unique player and as such it was a negotiation without precedent.

The Bears needed to find a way to pay Hester for his production, excitement, marketability, and potential and this contract seems to do all of that. Now all the remaining questions will be answered on the field. Like, how many offensive snaps can he play without his returns suffering? And will he ever be able to learn more than one route as a WR? While I reserve the right to be incredibly apprehensive about Hester and his ability to live up to this deal (and reference back to this at some point in the future with an “I told you so”), I’m going to forget all about that when he’s fielding the opening kick-off in Indianapolis, or more likely it’s kicked out of bounds, and that’s the point.