Blog Archives

The next two weeks are the turning point of the Bears season. They already salvaged a potentially positive season with a goal line stand against the Eagles. Then they started to forge their identity by dominating the Lions in Detroit.

But now the journey really begins. The road leads to the playoffs and playing off 2007 as a fluke. At 3-2 and with a string of winnable games ahead the Bears get the chance to establish themselves as a forced to be reckoned with in the NFC (again).

Their defense can be dominant and opportunistic. Their offense can be efficient and dare I say explosive. And by putting it all together the Bears can rescue themselves from the fate of other fading teams like the Seattle Seahawks.

And so with over/under we look at the keys, the storylines, and the match-ups of week 6.

Over/Under 100 rushing yards for Michael Turner
So far this seems to be the magic number for the Falcons. In their 3 wins this season Turner has averaged nearly 150 yards and 2 TDs, but in the 2 losses he’s been held to 50 yards per game and no TDs.

Mutually the 4th ranked Bears run D and Turner present the biggest challenge either has faced all year. But a motivated Tommie Harris and Co. can dominate along the line and allow Urlacher, Briggs, and Kevin Payne to slow “the Burner” down.

Turner and Jerius Norwood will likely combine to go over 100 on the day, but keeping Turner himself under the century mark should key a Bears victory.

Over/Under 4.0 yards per rushing attempt for Bears
The Bears have struggled running the ball the last few weeks but when finally looking at the numbers it more than a little startling. Things had gotten so bad that last week against the worse run defense in the NFL the Bears actually passed nearly 50% of the time on first down.

Personally you can’t complain about the balance or the effectiveness, but it is seriously disturbing to see Forte not even capable of cracking 3 yards per carry. It’s also disconcerting that Forte hasn’t broken off a run of longer then 20 yards since his week 1 gallop against the Colts.

Orton’s performance last week should finally loosen defenses up, but can this line consistently open the holes? While the running game should get back on track, 4 yrds/att is too lofty a goal.

Over/Under 270 yards passing for Kyle Orton
It’s absolutely amazing to think that Orton has averaged nearly 270 yards a game for the last 3 weeks. A big part of that is simply taking what the defense gives him, but coming into the season how sure were you that he could even do that?

He should have a decent chance against a secondary that is 3 parts young (S Eric Coleman, CB Brent Grimes, CB Chris Houston) and 1 part old (Lawyer Milloy). But the pass rush and the need to keep the ball away from the Falcons and their bruising running style might limit his attempts.

It’ll all depend on how they try to defend him. Will the Falcons blitz and try to force turnovers giving Orton the chance to make big plays? Doubtful and that’s why he comes in under 270 yards, but still has a good game

Over/Under 100 return yards for Devin Hester
It’s always quietest before the storm. Atlanta Falcons you have been officially warned. Devin Hester’s relatively meek start to the 2008 season should not embolden you to feel confident or cocky (but as Bears fans we sure hope it does).

A lot has been written about the fact that Hester hasn’t run one back at and at times has looked indecisive and tentative. But given that he missed most of the Carolina game and all of the Tampa game the drought is over stated. Others like ESPN’s Kevin Seifert do not though and even questioned whether or not teams should still fear Hester.

For anyone who wonders about that you should speak with: Brad Childress, Mike Shanahan and Tony Dungy. Ask them how kicking to Hester worked out. In the Georgia Dome this could be Hester’s break out game, and if not watching what Reggie Bush did to the Minnesota Vikings makes me salivate for next week.

Over/Under 1.5 sacks for John Abraham
There is no more important 1 on 1 match-up in this game than Falcons DE John Abraham vs. Bears LT John St. Clair. Abraham is the NFL leader in sacks with 7 and St. Clair is a journeyman tackle who’s been filling in admirably for injured rookie Chris Williams.

If anyone can disrupt the role that Kyle Orton and the Bears passing game has been on recently it’s Abraham. He has an ideal variety of speed and strength moves that can overmatch an athletically limited St. Clair.

The odds are that Abraham is going to Orton or flush him to his teammates, probably more than once. The key will to make sure that those sacks and hits don’t turn into turnover. Kyle Orton, watch your back.

After coming down from the high of that tremendous goal line stand against the Eagles I started thinking about next week against the Lions. The first thing that jumped to mind was “3-2 here we come!” and something tells me that might have jumped to mind for a few Bears players too.

So you know what that makes this? A classic trap game. A presumed win against a down and out opponent the inevitably proves the old saying about “any given Sunday”.

Someone suggested to me, can a 2-2 team really have a trap game? And it’s a fair point. Don’t you need to have risen to some level beyond mediocre before you can get “trapped” by anyone? He’s probably right.

Still the Bears do sit atop the NFC North and have to be feeling pretty good after beating a team like the Eagles. But after watching the 2007 team fail to win back-to-back games until the final two games of the year, then compounding it with the letdown that was the Panthers game coming off their season opening win, it becomes pretty evident that this team might have some issues with momentum.

Then you look at the Detroit Lions. An inferior team that somehow managed to beat the Bears twice last season. Two games that had they gone the other way would’ve put the Bears right in the thick of the playoff race.

They’ve had the bye week to prepare for the game. They’re still looking for their first win of the season. And they finally jettisoned albatross Matt Millen, which might remove a huge emotional burden (or at the very least raise the average football IQ at Ford Field).

There’s also the added caveat of a few Bears’ injuries that could make for huge mismatches. Charles Tillman’s injury leaves Corey Graham covering either Calvin Johnson or Roy Williams. And Brandon Lloyd’s injury could leave no one for the Lions to cover at all.

So before you get too excited and start wondering what sort of defensive fronts the Bears will use to confuse rookie Matt Ryan down in Atlanta, don’t forget about the Lions. Because the Bears saved their season Sunday night along Lake Michigan, but they can just as easily throw it away when the travel to the other side this weekend.

Over the past two years the Bears have proved to be an incredibly maddening team no matter who is under center. And in typical Bears fashion they did not disappoint last night on the lakefront with an up-and-down affair against the Philadelphia Eagles.

I am not sure if I should be more overjoyed at a win keyed by a goal-line stand with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, a stand that effectively saved the Bears season, or more upset that this team isn’t 4-0 right now.

But then again, they just wouldn’t be the Bears if they made this easy on us. So as we do after every game we look at the keys in five…

1) Not this time!
Late in the fourth quarter, the opposing team with first and goal inside the Bears 5 and the Bears on the verge of needing a game tying drive… I feel like we’ve seen this before.

But unlike two weeks ago against the Panthers the Bears defense rose to the occasion and stuffed the Eagles on four straight plays. Not enough can be said about what might turn into a season defining set of downs. The play of the entire defense was inspired, with the most credit going to Alex Brown whose effort to catch Correll Buckhalter from behind on 4th and goal saved the game.

It’s evident that the injury to Tommie Harris and a still somewhat unsettled secondary situation may keep this unit from being as dominant as they once were. But what they proved Sunday night is that they are more than capable of being dominant enough to win.

2) Yes, this time!
Late in the fourth, the Bears facing third and short and needing the conversion to seal a victory… I feel like I’ve seen this before too.

But once again unlike last week where the Bears ran Kyle Orton out on a bootleg, they gave it to their best player Matt Forte. Forte proceed to shed a tackler and put a move on Pro Bowler Brian Dawkins that allowed him to pick up the first down and effectively seal the game.

When the game is on the line you need to put the ball in your best player’s hands. That’s the mistake the Bears made in Carolina when they threw an ill-fated WR screen and then handed the ball to Jason McKie. It’s also the mistake they made against the Buccaneers when they left the ball in Orton’s hands.

When it’s crunch time Matt Forte gets the ball. Period.

3) See-saw Orton
So much for that mistake-free game-manager image Kyle Orton had, huh?

During the second half of the Buccaneer’s game and the first half against the Eagles Kyle Orton threw for over 300 yards, five touchdowns, and just one interception. But during the other two halves in those games he threw for under 150 yards and turned the ball over five times. Yikes!

I thought Orton was supposed to be the calm, ball-security answer to Bad Rex? Instead about the only difference I see so far is that Orton is capable of playing really good and really bad within the same game.

Orton has made obvious strides since 2005, but his inconsistencies and turnovers right now can still cost the Bears games. That is going to continue to hold him and the rest of the team back.

4) Injuries taking hold?
Fresh off the injury-decimated campaign of 2007 it would be fair for Bears fans to be a little over sensitive to the team’s current injury situation.

Far and away the most concerning injury is that of Tommie Harris, who was inactive Sunday night. The Bears just invested four years and $40 million in Harris and I’ve long maintained he is the second-most important player on this defense. If he is going to have knee problems all season long it’s going to be a serious issue.

Also concerning were the in-game injuries to Brandon Lloyd and Charles Tillman.

Many of the Bears defensive schemes were altered last year after Nathan Vasher went down with a torn groin muscle, and the same could hold true if the Tillman injury is serious. Without him the Bears have to dial back the aggressiveness and play their more conventional Cover-2, a move that was widely criticized last year. Tillman’s absence really could prove to be critical given everything he does on defense and special teams.

The loss of Lloyd could be equally crucial to the Bears offense. Lloyd was the only wide receiver that opposing defenses truly had to respect, and his budding connection with Kyle Orton created a legit passing threat. Now the Bears must rely on a collection of third and forth wideouts that won’t scare anyone. For the entire offenses sake, Lloyd needs to make a speedy recovery.

5) The view from the top?
Given the preseason hype of the Vikings and the early play of Aaron Rodgers it’s hard to imagine that 2-2 is good enough to have the Bears tied for first in the NFC North. And with half of their remaining games against divisional rivals the Bears will have a lot of say on if they remain there.

Still the next few weeks heading into the bye are crucial. Because of a brutal closing schedule that includes at Vikings, Jaguars, Saints on a short week, Packers, and at Texans the Bears need to build up a cushion now against some weaker opponents.

It all starts with a trip to Detroit where the Bears can avenge two inexcusable losses to the Lions last year. But the Lions are coming out of a bye week and just removed albatross Matt Millen. The game sets up to be a classic let-down game, so if the Bears are going to make that goal line stand mean something they have to carry it with them to Detroit.

What the hell was that? Honestly!

The Bears blow another late game lead and a team that is only a handful of plays from being 3-0 instead is 1-2 headed into a nightmare match-up with the Philadelphia Eagles.

So let’s break down this debacle from all sides:

Offense:

It was a tale of two halves.

In the first half Kyle Orton couldn’t do anything right. The offense squandered great field position and settled for field goals. And to top it off they managed to give up as many points as the defense when Orton threw on straight to Gaines Adams…. I swear sometimes I wonder if they test for color blindness in the NFL.

Then in the second half Brandon Lloyd decided to play a little football. He made several amazing catches in combining with Matt Forte to finally provide the Bears with two options as they moved down the field put up 15 points. It was by far the best the offense had looked all season.

But once again the Bears came up short on a crucial 3rd down when on a 3rd and 2 immediately after the two minute warning Orton refused to throw it on a naked bootleg and was stuffed for no gain. If you can’t convert 3rd and short in crunch time you can’t win in the NFL.

Defense:

They stuffed the run. They forced four turnovers. They did pretty much everything they wanted to for 50 minutes Sunday. But after that a few things finally caught up with the Bears, like 67 passes from Brian Griese.

First was the fatigue of trying to keep up with the Bucs hurry-up offense. Brian Griese and Co. kept them off guard by rushing to the line and creating mismatches with quick personnel changes. The Bears were regularly left with Hunter Hillenmeyer out in coverage or other equally undesirable one-on-one match ups.

Second was the fact that they couldn’t get a pass rush without blitzing. It’s one thing to blitz occasionally, especially given the quality of the Bears CBs. But Vasher and Tillman can not be left on an island all day without eventually giving up plays.

So Bob Babich was left to decide between blitzing to apply pressure or giving Griese time to pick the Bears apart. To his credit he stayed aggressive and the Bears nearly made several game ending plays, including an almost INT by Vasher. But in the end you can’t run an effective Cover-2 without getting a pass rush with four. A lot of this has to fall on Tommie Harris, Adewale Ogunleye, Alex Brown, and Mark Anderson.

Special Teams:

They survived without all-world Devin Hester. Manning was effective on kick offs and looked like he could’ve broke one all the way on several occasions. And Vasher was more than serviceable returning punts.

Overall this group performed well as usual. The only minor complaint you could make was Gould’s missed 49 yard field goal. If he hits that the Bears probably win the game, but you can’t expect your kicker to be perfect, especially at that range. I am sure well hear plenty about how much he’s paid and how he’s never hit one over 50, but Gould is the last person who should be scapegoated for this debacle.

In conclusion it’s nearly 24 hours later and I still feel sick to my stomach. On the plus side I finally have my voice back so Herman and I will be back tonight to cover two pretty gut wrenching losses.

In last week’s Over/Under I picked out a bunch of things I thought the Bears would need to go over on to stay close. Well, they won the game and only went “over” on 1 of 5 (thank you Matt Forte!).

In my own defense the Bears got two sacks when I set the line at 2.5, and both sacks came at key times. They also forced only one turnover which Lance Briggs took back for a touchdown when I set the line at 1.5. So perhaps my over/under’s will be another case of close but not quite this week, but they will still be key factors if the Bears are to get off to a 2-0 start.

Bears 3rd down conversion percentage: Over/Under 50%

Over: A HUGE key for the Bears against the Colts was converting 10 of 16 3rd downs. The Bears made sure not to put themselves in 3rd and long. It opened up lots of options for picking up the first and kept the defense on the sidelines. The Bears offense isn’t explosive so if they are going to score and control the ball they need to convert on 3rd down. With how well the executed in week 1 I expect them to do it again.

Combined rushing yards for DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart: Over/Under 125

Under: These two backs combined for nearly 140 yards against a highly respected Chargers defense. The Bears D on the other hand limited Joseph Addai to just 44 yards, but that was against a suspect offensive line. I don’t expect the Bears to shut down the run like they did last week, but especially with a healthy Dustin Dvoracek these two backs should struggle to break 100.

Sacks against and negative rushes for the Bears: Over/Under 4.5

Over: Last week the Bears were able to limit their pass attempts and Orton was only sacked twice. Also, Matt Forte did a great job slipping through the smallest crevice and making sure to pick up at least some positive yardage on every carry. I just find it hard to see this line playing that well two weeks in a row. Negative plays are a part of football and the Bears are going to have to show they can overcome them.

Receptions by Bears’ WR: Over/Under 8.5

Over: With the Bears up big early and running the ball well Kyle Orton never needed to open things up. As a result the Bears’ WRs made only six catches in the entire game and no WR caught more than two. I’m still confused what exactly Marty Booker is doing on the field, but that aside the wideouts are going to need to step up. Orton and Co. need to prove they can throw it this week. I am guessing Devin Hester makes a couple of big plays and leaves Panthers’ fans longing for Steve Smith.

Receiving yards for ex-Bear Moose Muhammad: Over/Under 50

Under: The Bears facing off against Mushin Muhammad is by far the most compelling story line this Sunday. And as I wrote Wednesday, while the Bears have said publicly very little about his comments it has been reported that off the record they are not particularly pleased with him. Moose came across as a me-first sort of player his entire time in Chicago, and I am sure he feels like he proved some people wrong with 56 yards receiving in week 1. I expect the Bears D will be highly motivated to shut him down and shut him up. If they can slow down Marvin Harrison, Moose shouldn’t be a challenge.

As announced on today’s episode, the very first Bearscast Photo Caption Contest is live! To submit an entry, simply click on the photo below and enter your caption as a comment. Everyone is welcome to participate (even people that pretend they knew the Bears would beat the Colts). First prize this week is a Bearscast Prize Pack which includes a Bears-related DVD. Official Photo Caption Contest Rules.

Contest ends on Sunday September 14th at 7 p.m. CT.. Winner to be announced on an episode the following week. Subscribe to the show in iTunes or via RSS.

Good luck!

The unexpected happened. The nearly unbelievable happened. Sunday night the Bears flipped the switch on their time machine and took us back to 2005. And when the dust cleared they stood victorious over the Indianapolis Colts, 29-13, in a Super Bowl rematch that was supposed to be a mismatch. So we recap the Bears week 1 in five easy steps.

1) Matt Forte…I think I love you

Matt Forte’s debut with the Bears was everything you could’ve asked for and more. 123 yards on 23 carries that included a majestic 50 yard TD run where he made several Colts defenders, including former defensive player of the year Bob Sanders, look bad. And to top it off he also threw in a couple of nice grabs and 18 yards receiving. When the Bears drafted Matt Forte I thought he looked like a bigger version of Thomas Jones, it looks so far like I might have sold him short. I can’t wait to see what he does for an encore.

2) Hey, that looks familiar! Good defense!

Two sacks, a fumble recovery for a TD, a safety, a key forth and short stuff, and consistent pressure… I would like to thank the Bears defense for reminding me what good defense looks like. It was just hard to see how they were going to suddenly stop the Indianapolis Colts after getting lit up by J.T. O’Sullivan and Brady Quinn. But Bob Babich and company put the NFL on notice Sunday night that they were back, healthy, and angry. The ability of Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs to be up on the line of scrimmage on nearly every snap forces teams to expect blitz and when they don’t come they do a great job of getting back into coverage, it was a thing of beauty.

3) Superman’s kryptonite? Over-confidence

Devin Hester is by definition ridiculous. He does things on returns that we have never seen before. He escapes crowds of defenders with Houdini like skill. But every once in a while his supreme confidence in his ability to bring any kick back leads to what happened on the 2nd half kickoff. Hester’s decision to play possum 7 yards deep in the end zone and then bring the ball out nearly cost the Bears when he was tackled at the 3. The Colts forced a 3 and out and used to good field position to score their only TD, which cut the Bears lead to 15-13. I know this is the price we pay for all the other amazing things he does, but this one was almost ridiculously costly.

4) Same Neckbeard. Same Orton. Same result.

Kyle Orton is what he is. He’s not a gun slinger, or a pro bowler, or a future MVP, but he is consistent. He is consistent in his decision making and in his lack of mistakes and right now that’s all the Bears need. Right now he is taking us on a magic Neckbeard ride back to 2005 when he was 10-4 mostly by virtue of not messing up too bad. Some things have changed in the last three years though and more is going to fall on his shoulders. But for right now he’s notched his 13th win as a Bears starting QB and he should be looking for #14 next week with some of the progress he’s made and maybe even a big play. He’s got to have something hidden inside that beard.

5) It don’t mean a thing…

If the Bears can’t build off of this win and start the season 2-0 with another victory in Carolina. Because if you asked me going into the season the odds that the Bears were 1-1 after two weeks I would’ve said pretty good, and at the time I thought this was at best a 9-7 football team. So if the Bears were to squander away this chance to head into their home opener vs. the Buccaneers undefeated it’ll seriously diminish the dismantling of the Colts. Now the Panthers aren’t going to make it easy coming off their own upset over the San Diego Chargers, but if the Bears are going to be a playoff contender this is a game they need to win.

As we plan to announce in an episode later this week, we’ve added a new t-shirt design to the Bearscast Store! It’s your chance to throw your support behind the venerable ticket of Obama/Urlacher. Wouldn’t he make an awesome VP? We’ve also added the ability for anyone to customize our ‘08 Election t-shirt with the candidate and/or Bears players of your choice.

These are a limited edition, so order early and often. The first person to order a Kucinich shirt wins a gold star.

Visit the Bearscast Store

Traditionally on Bearscast we do an Over/Under segment during our preview show for every game. I try to pick out five to six statistics or topics that I feel could play key role this week’s game. I try to focus on topics that could swing the tide between a Bears’ victory or defeat and occasionally I just have a little fun. So I now present you with the Bearscast Over/Under for week 1, my picks, and my thoughts/explanation.

Rushing yards for Matt Forte: Over/Under 85?
Matt Forte is the first rookie running back to start the opening game for the Bears since Walter Payton. While that’s pretty nice company Forte will need to have a much better day for the Bears to stay competitive, Payton rushed 8 times for 0 yards. With that in mind I think Forte will break the 85 yard mark and probably go over 100 in total-yards. He’s going to be the main man on team that’s looking to run and control the clock. If he comes in under the Bears are in trouble.

Sacks by the Bears defense: Over/Under 2.5?
There is a decent chance the Colts are going to have some protection issues. They lost their LG in free agency and then Pro Bowl C Jeff Saturday went out with an injury in the preseason. The problem is we’ve seen nothing that resembles a pass rush from the Bears so far this year. Supposedly Tommie Harris is 100% but combine the lackadaisical daze the D seems to be in with Peyton Manning’s quick release and I don’t think the Bears can get to him three times.

Passing yards for Kyle Orton: Over/Under 225?
Call it optimism and combine it with the fact that I expect the Bears to be behind in the second half. Orton is not the same QB he was in 2005 and with the full playbook at his disposal he will get the chance to take deep shots and make a lot more plays. The Colts secondary is outstanding but it plays the Cover-2 that Orton is so familiar with. I expect Brandon Lloyd and Greg Olsen to have good days and lots of yards picked up on pass to RB out of the backfield.

Turnovers forced by the Bears: Over/Under 1.5?
This is the one that is going to hurt the most. The Bears are going to need turnovers and good field position to stay in the game, and Manning’s rust after missing the whole preseason should help. However, the play from Safety has been so underwhelming and the pass rush so non-existent that it’s hard to foresee more than 1 INT. Combine that with the outstanding ball security, only 5 fumbles lost last year, and opportunities will be slim for this big play driven D. And without that the outlook is grim.

Receptions for Devin Hester: Over/Under 3.5?
Speculation is that Hester will start along side Brandon Lloyd Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium. However, how many snaps he’ll play exactly is still up for debate. The Bears seemed to still be easing him into things during the preseason and despite all his talent he never really impressed. There’s also the concern that it will take away from his return ability, his #23, and the field position that supplies is too valuable to lose. I expect to see one gadget play (WR screen), one deep shot and one or two other targets, but I don’t expect that he’ll be an integral enough part of the offense to catch 4 passes.

While a lot of key decisions were made as the Bears cut down to 53 players over the weekend, the biggest one in fans’ eyes was the decision to keep Caleb Hanie on the active roster. Hanie’s preseason play made it hard for the Bears to cut him. The Bears had planned to carry two quarterbacks because of uncertainty at so many positions, but given the attention he would’ve drawn from other teams, and the riot that would’ve ensued had they Bears lost him, they found a way to make the numbers work.

Other interesting roster moves include the cutting of several recent draft picks. Most notably where Dan Bazuin and Michael Okwo, both were high picks (2nd and 3rd round respectively) but became expendable when they guys they were tagged to replace (Alex Brown and Lance Briggs) signed extensions with the team. Given the current woes on the offensive line one has to ask if the picks might have been better use there.

Speaking of the offense, outside of Hanie’s inclusion on the roster there weren’t many surprises. The Bears insisted on keeping Garrett Wolfe, despite the fact that he’ll impact on at most a dozen plays this year. The most startling roster decision was to cut both Anthony Oakley and Tyler Reed who I thought were competing for a back-up guard spot. But that position was secured when the Bears acquired Dan Buenning from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers yesterday for a sixth round pick.

There was one additional unexpected roster move made this weekend that is beginning to make a lot more sense. Instead of keeping defensive ends Ervin Baldwin or Dan Bazuin, both were cut in favor of defensive tackle Matt Toeaina. Considering the performance of rookie Marcus Harrison and Israel Idonije’s off-season bulk up to take more time at DT the move was more than a little curious.

Now the reasoning for that move may be coming clear as it has been reported that Tommie Harris has not practiced since the third preseason game and he may be doubtful for Sunday’s opener. Harris has a growing history of injury issues and this rumored knee issue is especially concerning because it may be a continuation of an injury he played through last year.

Harris is the most integral member of this defense. His penetration in the middle of the offensive line draws continuous double-teams and frees up the rest of the line to make plays one on one. If this injury is going to slow him down it’ll make things harder for everyone. Not what you hope for after signing someone to a 4 year $40 million contract.